Executive Summary

The Northwood University COVID-19 Optimism Index is prepared daily by the McNair Center for the Advancement of Free Enterprise and Entrepreneurship at Northwood University.

The Index follows seven variables on a daily basis. The variables are (a) Total U.S. COVID cases, (b) Total U.S. COVID-related deaths, (c) Current U.S. COVID-19 Mortality Rate, (d) Performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), (e) Performance of the NASDAQ Stock Exchange, (f) Performance of the Wilshire 5000 Stock Index, and (g) Movement in the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year Bond (see chart on next page). The index tracks variables c, d, e, f, and g in the calculation of its Index. The Index uses variable c as a proxy for the impact of the COVID-19 virus on the economy, variables d, e, and f as a proxy for the general health of the economy, and variable g, as a proxy for the general level of confidence in the economy.

The Index measures movement from pre-COVID-19 crisis through the current COVID-19 crisis,
a sustained measurement on the Index above of 65 to 70 is an indication that the economy is beginning to recover. When the Index reaches a level of 100 or 100 percent, it is a signal that the economy has or will within six months returned to conditions close to or equal to those which existed pre-COVID-19 virus.

Our McNair Center’s Northwood University COVID-19 Optimism Index closed flat this week at 103% with all seven of our variables in the green. The overall mortality rate fell to 1.217% and the weekly mortality rate decreased to 1.66%. The 7-day moving average for daily new cases, as of Friday, was 28,274. For new hospitalizations, the 7-day average is currently 2,121, a decrease of 521 from the previous week. According to the Wall Street Journal, Jeff Zients, the one who has led the Biden Administrations COVID-19 response for over a year, will be leaving his job in April and will be replaced by Doctor Ashish Jha. According to the Guardian, 3,400 cases were reported in China on March 13th, double from the day before, marking one of China’s the highest outbreaks since the pandemic began. As a result, the government is forcing lockdowns in civilian centers across China where the virus is prevalent. The Daily Wire reported today, “White House Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci quickly backpedaled on Sunday after suggesting just last week that he might be thinking about retiring soon.” According to the CDC, out of the 698.41 million vaccine doses distributed in the United States, 558.54 million or 80% have been administered, down from last week’s level of 80.06%. In addition, 217.1 million Americans or 65.4% of the US population are fully vaccinated with 254.985 million Americans aged 18 or above or 88.2% of the US population having received at least 1 COVID-19 vaccination dosage. The US has conducted roughly 971.46 million COVID-19 tests to date.

We especially encourage you to pay close attention to charts 10, 11 and 12 (in the report) as they are showing key COVID-19 data, increasing at a decreasing rate or the flattening of overall COVID-19 conditions which means that we DO expect the number of new cases to be declining in the next 1-2 weeks.

*for more information, or questions, on the above, contact Dr. Timothy G. Nash at 1(989) 837-4129 or at tgnash@northwood.edu

Index Factors:

Daily Northwood University COVID-19 Index Reading