The Northwood University COVID-19 Optimism Index is prepared daily by the McNair Center for the Advancement of Free Enterprise and Entrepreneurship at Northwood University.
The Index follows seven variables on a daily basis. The variables are (a) Total U.S. COVID cases, (b) Total U.S. COVID-related deaths, (c) Current U.S. COVID-19 Mortality Rate, (d) Performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), (e) Performance of the NASDAQ Stock Exchange, (f) Performance of the Wilshire 5000 Stock Index, and (g) Movement in the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year Bond (see chart on next page). The index tracks variables c, d, e, f, and g in the calculation of its Index. The Index uses variable c as a proxy for the impact of the COVID-19 virus on the economy, variables d, e, and f as a proxy for the general health of the economy, and variable g, as a proxy for the general level of confidence in the economy.
The Index measures movement from pre-COVID-19 crisis through the current COVID-19 crisis, a sustained measurement on the Index above of 65 to 70 is an indication that the economy is beginning to recover. When the Index reaches a level of 100 or 100 percent, it is a signal that the economy has or will within six months returned to conditions close to or equal to those which existed pre-COVID-19 virus.
Our McNair Center’s Northwood University COVID-19 Optimism Index closed flat this week at 103% with four of our variables in the red while the number of cases, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Wilshire 5000 were in the green. The overall mortality rate rose to 1.21% and the weekly mortality rate increased to 4.23%. The 7-day moving average for daily new cases, as of Friday, was 45,555. For new hospitalizations, the 7-day average is currently 3,661, a decrease of 1,351 from the previous week. According to the Daily Wire, the NFL is “returning to normalcy after two years of dealing with COVID-19 protocols.” Effective immediately all COVID rules are suspended following an agreement between the National Football Players Association and the league. The Wall Street Journal reported last week, Senate Republicans in a 48-47 vote passed a measure terminating the federal government’s March 2020 COVID-19 emergency declaration. The vote came after the President said in his state of the union speech that the government will shift its pandemic strategy from eradicating the disease to managing it. According to the CDC, out of the 693.429 million vaccine doses distributed in the United States, 555.112 million or 80.05% have been administered, down from last week’s level of 75.6%. In addition, 216.1 million Americans or 65.1% of the US population are fully vaccinated with 254.071 million Americans aged 18 or above or 88% of the US population having received at least 1 COVID-19 vaccination dosage. Meanwhile, 95.2 million Americans have received a booster shot.
We especially encourage you to pay close attention to charts 10, 11 and 12 (in the report) as they are showing key COVID-19 data, increasing at a decreasing rate or the flattening of overall COVID-19 conditions which means that we DO expect the number of new cases to be declining in the next 1-2 weeks.
*for more information, or questions, on the above, contact Dr. Timothy G. Nash at 1(989) 837- 4129 or at firstname.lastname@example.org. Prepared by Northwood’s McNair Center for the Advancement of Free Enterprise and Entrepreneurship