Northwood University COVID-19 Optimism Index for June is encouraging

Dr. Timothy Nash

Director, The McNair Center

Dr. Timothy Nash
June 6, 2022

Northwood University COVID-19 Optimism Index for June is encouraging

The Northwood University COVID-19 Optimism Index is prepared monthly by the McNair Center for the Advancement of Free Enterprise and Entrepreneurship at Northwood University.

The Index follows seven variables on a daily basis. The variables are (a) Total U.S. COVID cases, (b) Total U.S. COVID-related deaths, (c) Current U.S. COVID-19 Mortality Rate, (d) Performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), (e) Performance of the NASDAQ Stock Exchange, (f) Performance of the Wilshire 5000 Stock Index, and (g) Movement in the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year Bond (see chart on next page). The index tracks variables c, d, e, f, and g in the calculation of its Index. The Index uses variable c as a proxy for the impact of the COVID-19 virus on the economy, variables d, e, and f as a proxy for the general health of the economy, and variable g, as a proxy for the general level of confidence in the economy.

The Index measures movement from pre-COVID-19 crisis through the current COVID-19 crisis,
a sustained measurement on the Index above of 65 to 70 is an indication that the economy is beginning to recover. When the Index reaches a level of 100 or 100 percent, it is a signal that the economy has or will within six months returned to conditions close to or equal to those which existed pre-COVID-19 virus.

Our McNair Center’s Northwood University COVID-19 Optimism Index closed flat this month at 100% with five of our variables in the red while the overall mortality rate and 10-year US Treasury Bond Yield were in the green.

The overall mortality rate fell to 1.19% and the monthly mortality rate decreased to 0.44%. The 7-day moving average for daily new cases, as of Friday, was 97,611. For new hospitalizations, the 7-day average is currently 3,887, an increase of 1,941 from the month prior. According to the Daily Wire, Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel stated at the World Economic Forum “I’m in the process of throwing 30 million vaccine doses into the garbage because nobody wants them.” The Hill stated “COVID-19 cases have risen in the U.S. to around 100,000 per day, and the real number could be as much as five times that.” The article went on to state that deaths and hospitalizations have remained relatively flat.

In May, an Axios-Ipsos poll found that only 36% of Americans believe there is a significant risk in returning to normal life. According to the CDC, out of the 751.41 million vaccine doses distributed in the United States, 588.87 million or 78.37% have been administered, down from last month’s level of 79.11%. In addition, 221.5 million Americans or 66.7% of the US population are fully vaccinated, up a half percent from last month. Furthermore, 255.75 million Americans aged 18 or above or 89.93% of the US population have received at least 1 COVID-19 vaccination dosage. Meanwhile, 103.8 million Americans have received a booster shot.

Our data indicates we expect the number of new COVID cases to be declining in the next one to two weeks. To review the data, visit

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