COVID-19 Optimism Index: Final Report
The Northwood University COVID-19 Optimism Index was prepared daily by the McNair Center for the Advancement of Free Enterprise and Entrepreneurship at Northwood University.
Latest Optimism Index
The Index follows seven variables on a daily basis. The variables are (a) Total U.S. COVID cases, (b) Total U.S. COVID-related deaths, (c) Current U.S. COVID-19 Mortality Rate, (d) Performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), (e) Performance of the NASDAQ Stock Exchange, (f) Performance of the Wilshire 5000 Stock Index, and (g) Movement in the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year Bond (see chart on next page). The index tracks variables c, d, e, f, and g in the calculation of its Index. The Index uses variable c as a proxy for the impact of the COVID-19 virus on the economy, variables d, e, and f as a proxy for the general health of the economy, and variable g, as a proxy for the general level of confidence in the economy.
The Index measures movement from pre-COVID-19 crisis through the current COVID-19 crisis, a sustained measurement on the Index above of 65 to 70 is an indication that the economy is beginning to recover. When the Index reaches a level of 100 or 100 percent, it is a signal that the economy has or will within six months returned to conditions close to or equal to those which existed pre-COVID-19 virus.
Our McNair Center’s Northwood University COVID-19 Optimism Index closed flat for the month of December 2022 at 100% with five of our variables in the red while the overall mortality rate and 10-year US Treasury Bond Yield were in the green. The overall mortality rate fell to 1.081% and the monthly mortality rate increased to 0.61%. The 7-day moving average for daily new cases, as of yesterday, was 52,767. For new hospitalizations, the 7-day average is currently 5,639, an increase of 989 from the month prior. According to CNN, China will drop the quarantine requirements for international travelers on January 8th, another step towards the country’s dismantling of its zero-COVID policy. China’s National Health Commission stated that travelers will be required to show proof of a negative COVID test at least 2 days before departure. The easing of COVID restrictions comes as a response to nationwide protests that took place in late November/early December. CNN continued, saying the sudden change in policy caused widespread shortages of cold and fever medicine leaving Chinese hospitals scrambling to handle an unprecedented surge of infections. According to the CDC, out of the 939.127 million vaccine doses distributed in the U.S., 663.82 million or 71.12% have been administered, up from last month’s level of 70.68%. In addition, 229.135 million Americans or 69% of the US population are fully vaccinated with 236.989 million or 91.8% of Americans 18 and older having received at least 1 vaccine dose.
For access to past index reports, please contact Kate Hessling at comms@northwood.edu or (989) 837-4923.